What would happen if Russia attacked a NATO member – and the United States is hesitant to stand firmly by its allies' side? That question is no longer theoretical in European security circles. A high-level wargame conducted by the German publication WELT in cooperation with the German Wargaming Center of the Helmut-Schmidt-University of the German Armed Forces suggests that Germany – and Europe more broadly – would struggle to respond quickly and decisively to a Russian military escalation in the Baltics without clear U.S. backing and leadership.

The project is not meant to predict the future, but to expose decision-making patterns, blind spots, and structural weaknesses under crisis conditions.

In the simulation, Russian forces establish a militarily secured land corridor across Lithuanian territory, linking Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad through the strategically sensitive Suwalki Gap, NATO’s only land connection to the Baltic States.

Germany responds with sanctions, maritime measures in the Baltic Sea, and internal crisis preparations – including civil protection measures and economic safeguards –, but initially avoids direct military action. Berlin’s decision-making, the wargame suggests, is shaped less by directly countering Moscow’s core objectives than by consensus-building, external signaling and concerns about escalation.

As the game unfolds, one dynamic becomes increasingly clear: once military facts are established, reversing them becomes extremely costly and risky, shifting the burden of escalation onto the defending side.

The wargame brought together former senior political decision-makers, retired military leaders, NATO officials, and security experts, many of whom have held real-world responsibility in comparable crises.

Among the participants were Oana Lungescu, former NATO principal spokesperson, Alexander Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Roderich Kiesewetter, former Bundeswehr officer and current member of the German parliament, Eberhard Zorn, former Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Germany’s highest-ranking military officer, and Franz-Stefan Gady, an Austrian military analyst. All participants operated independently. Nothing was scripted.

The scenario underpinning the wargame is fictional – but not far-fetched. It is set in late October 2026, after a ceasefire in Ukraine freezes the front lines while leaving Russia in control of occupied territory. Following the Russian-Belarusian exercise Zapad 2026, some 12,000 Russian troops remain stationed in western Belarus, despite earlier commitments to withdraw.

After security incidents Lithuania attributes to Russian special forces, Vilnius closes its border. Moscow declares a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad and demands a transit corridor through Lithuanian territory. Lithuania refuses.

Officials across Europe have warned that Russia could become more dangerous after a bad peace in Ukraine, not less. Oana Lungescu, who played the NATO Secretary General in the wargame, reflected on the simulation afterwards. “Russia could become even more dangerous to NATO after some sort of peace in Ukraine, especially if it's a bad peace, if it is a Ukrainian capitulation,” she said, calling the wargame “very realistic, unfortunately”.

Across political and security circles, there is broad agreement that Russia aims to reassert itself as the dominant power in Europe. “To achieve this goal, Russia will not shy away from a direct military confrontation with NATO if necessary,” said Martin Jäger, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), in October. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned in December: “We are Russia's next target, and we are already in harm’s way.”

Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, has pledged to make the Bundeswehr “war-ready” by 2029. And Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk spoke of 2027 as a potential year of confrontation between the West and Russia and China.

Governments and militaries routinely conduct wargames to test crisis scenarios like this one. Their findings are usually classified. The outcomes of WELT’s wargame are being made public through a five-part podcast series, print and online reporting, and a television documentary to identify where Germany is capable of acting – and where it is not. In democracies, understanding how critical security decisions are made, and where they may fail, is a matter of public interest.

You can find all podcast episodes and more information here: https://www.welt.de/wargame/

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